Analyzing Price Trends in a Market Without Clear Direction

Plenty of homeowners, buyers, and even some real estate professionals are looking at today’s market and asking the same thing: Is it going up or down? The answer isn’t clear. In many submarkets across Southwest Florida, the data tells multiple stories depending on how far back you look. That puts appraisers in a familiar position, explaining to clients, underwriters, or even courts why conflicting trends aren’t a red flag but a reflection of how markets actually shift.

A common setup lately is this:

• 12-month median price trend: declining

• 6-month trend: flat or lightly increasing

• 3-month trend: showing a modest rise

This isn’t cherry-picking. Each timeframe offers a snapshot of a different part of the market cycle. The 12-month trend is still catching the tail end of a longer correction. The 3- and 6-month data are reacting to more recent behavior—fewer new listings, more realistic seller pricing, and buyers stepping back in at adjusted price points.

To the untrained eye, that can look like a contradiction. But appraisers deal with this constantly, especially in markets coming out of volatility. Our role is to interpret these signals, not just record them. That means looking past the spreadsheet and asking what the data means in context.

Making Sense of It: Judgment Over Algorithms

This is where professional judgment matters. Plugging numbers into a form doesn’t cut it when the market is in flux. The job is to analyze the trend that most accurately reflects current market behavior at the effective date of the appraisal.

If the 12-month trend shows a 5 percent decline, but the 6-month is flat and the 3-month is up 2 percent, a credible report doesn't just average those numbers. It asks:

• Are the most recent sales higher or lower than earlier ones?

• Are listings still sitting, or are they moving faster?

• Are sale-to-list ratios improving?

• Are concessions still widespread?

Sometimes, the short-term uptick is the start of a recovery. Other times, it’s a bounce off the bottom or a result of limited inventory. You don’t just write "stable to increasing" and call it good. You explain what you're seeing, what supports it, and what cautions still exist.

Visualizing the Shift

Here's a simplified look at median sale prices over the last year in one such market:

In this case, you’re seeing prices drop through mid-2024, then level out before climbing again in early 2025. It doesn’t mean the market is strong. It means the drop may have run its course, at least for now.

What This Means for Consumers

For homeowners: a recent bump in prices doesn’t guarantee a comeback. If you’re selling, don’t assume the worst is over, but don’t rely on last year’s peak pricing either. Know what’s selling now, not what has listed and failed.

For buyers: The "wait for the crash" crowd may have missed the bottom in some submarkets. Sellers are still negotiable, but in certain areas, prices are no longer slipping.

For attorneys and accountants: Appraised value in a market like this needs context. A good report will show the trend, explain its direction, and justify the conclusion based on the most relevant period, not just whatever number looks best or worst.

A Word on Inventory and the Illusion of Stability

Some areas are showing flat prices simply because both buyers and sellers are hesitant. Inventory might be up, but much of it isn’t competitive. Sellers are holding to aspirational prices. That inflates supply stats, but those listings aren’t real options for most buyers.

When a report says "prices are stable," it should also tell you why. Is demand soft? Are listings overpriced? Are concessions increasing? Without that context, "stable" isn’t helpful. And calling it a "normal market" assumes there’s a clearly defined baseline, which there isn’t. Markets cycle through phases, and what’s typical in one area or period isn’t necessarily applicable in the next.

How I Handle It in My Reports

When a market is showing mixed signals, I explain that directly. I identify which trend carries the most weight and why. I exclude outliers using statistical checks like Z-scores, and I never treat short-term data as gospel. Instead, I use it to inform whether a trend shift is emerging or not yet reliable.

When needed, I apply market condition adjustments. If a comparable closed three months ago and the market has appreciated slightly since then, I account for that, but only if it’s supported by more than just one indicator.

In reports for estates, divorce, or litigation, I write these sections clearly and defensibly. Not for other appraisers, but for attorneys, judges, or the IRS, where the value conclusion might be challenged.

Southwest Florida isn’t one market. Golden Gate Estates isn’t the same as Quail West. Port Royal isn’t reacting like Naples Park. That’s why the analysis can’t be cut and pasted. If you're ordering appraisals or relying on them for major decisions, make sure the commentary matches what the market is actually doing, even when the answer is complicated (It usually is).